02Porto2025
Chance of Success
From lead temperature to a broker decision system
From
To
What signal helps a broker decide which opportunity deserves attention first?
- Role
- Scope
- Team
- Period
Current state
Context, problem and intervention
Context
GDO is Porto's opportunity-management product for insurance brokers. Brokers work from a list of commercial opportunities, where a three-level “fire” indicator was used to signal which opportunities deserved attention. The initial request was to expand that indicator from three to five levels.
Problem
Brokers had no trustworthy reason for deciding which opportunity to handle first. The fire indicator carried no documented logic, and adding levels to it would have made the same undefined signal more granular.
Intervention
I reframed the initiative from an icon change to a prioritization problem, defined the decision model with Product, Analytics and Engineering, and designed the card experience, its states and its measurement plan.
Decisions
Treat the indicator as a decision aid, not a decoration
The initiative arrived as a visual refinement: three fire levels to five. Same mechanic, more granularity.
Before / after
- Evidence
- Existing qualitative evidence did not describe a granularity complaint. It described brokers lacking a defensible reason to choose one opportunity over another.
- Decision
- Replace the temperature metaphor with Chance of Success — a prioritization signal built from available relationship, behavioral and product-context signals.
- Trade-off
- A new mental model costs more to explain and to build than two extra icon states.
- Consequence
- The feature moved from decoration to an explicit prioritization aid connected to broker behavior and to outcomes the team can observe.
Design the insufficient-data state before the confident one
Signal coverage varies. A meaningful share of opportunities would not have enough history to be scored.
State system
- Evidence
- Any default score for thin data manufactures confidence the product cannot justify, and the first broker to notice it stops trusting every other score.
- Decision
- Specify an explicit insufficient-data state with its own copy and behavior, and forbid silent fallbacks to a neutral or optimistic value.
- Trade-off
- Visible gaps look less polished than a list where every row carries a score.
- Consequence
- Honesty became a property of the model rather than a caveat in the documentation, and the state is part of the tracking plan.
Attach ordering and measurement before attaching a sprint
A signal that only paints a card leaves entry order dominant, and nothing in the list would change.
Annotated recommendation card
- Evidence
- The value of a prioritization signal depends on the broker being able to act on it and on the team being able to see whether they did.
- Decision
- Include filtering or simple ordering in the proposal, and define the measurement plan with Analytics: service started, filter or ordering used, opportunity progressed, opportunity converted, SLA met or missed, insufficient-data state displayed.
- Trade-off
- Scope grew beyond the card, which made the first release larger to negotiate.
- Consequence
- The direction was approved by the PM, a business stakeholder and Design coordination with a defined way to judge it after release.
Evidence
Evaluation evidence
Measurement model
Constraints and trade-offs
- Honest — insufficient data must never produce artificial confidence or priority.
- Feasible — the first direction reuses the current list structure and available signals.
- Evolvable — initial rules may not match observed outcomes, so bands are compared against progression and conversion after release and refined.
- Generalized — internal scoring logic, weights and commercial criteria stay out of this write-up by design.
Outcome
The concept was evaluated through interviews and a concept presentation with eight brokers, focused on the clarity of the mental model, its usefulness for prioritization and confidence in the card-level signal. The direction was consistently well received and required no structural change.
What this case carries is product framing, cross-functional definition, user evaluation and implementation readiness.
Delivered
- Approved direction, signed off by the PM, a business stakeholder and Design coordination.
- Card experience, state system, microcopy and insufficient-data behavior.
- Concept evaluation with eight partner brokers.
- Tracking requirements, Jira items and acceptance criteria.
Not measured
- Production adoption — implementation has not started.
- Commercial impact or change in broker behavior.
- Accuracy of the initial rule-based classification against real outcomes.
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